2000年年會論文 -民意調查與選舉預測
篇名
民意調查與選舉預測
Opinion polls and election forecasting
作者
洪永泰
Hung, Yung-Tai
中文摘要
民意調查並不就是選舉預測,尤其是以電話訪問方式進行的民意調查更和選舉預測有不小的差距。從執行過程來看,抽樣、問卷設計、訪問或訪問失敗、資料處理、資料分析與解讀等等環節都可能影響到對選情的研判,進而影響到選舉預測的正確與否。本文針對這些議題逐一討論,希望對運用民意調查進行選舉預測能有所助益。
英文摘要
Figures coming out from opinion polls cannot be read simply as election forecasting, especially those using telephone interviews in Taiwan. There are many procedural problems in a survey can affect the evaluation of candidates’ performance, namely, sampling, questionnaire design, interviewing, refusals and non-responses, data processing, weighting, and data analysis. This article looks into the problems and hope that people can have better understanding while reading election related polls.
中文關鍵詞
民意調查,選舉預測,電話調查,訪問失敗
英文關鍵詞
Opinion polls,election forecasting,telephone survey,non-response
發表日期
2000.06.26
授權狀況
未授權