選舉民調第三者效果的因果分析
Testing a Theoretical Model on The Third-Person Effect: Perceived Impacts of Election Polls

胡幼偉
Hu, Yuwei

本研究以因果路徑分析的統計方法，探討民眾的社會及心理背景因素與選舉民調第三者效果的關聯，以及選舉民調第三者效果對限制選前公佈民調此一政策民意取向的影響。

研究結果顯示，選民的教育程度、自認對選舉活動的了解程度、對選舉的涉入感等三項因素和選舉民調第三者效果的認知強度有顯著正向關聯；對選舉民調的負面認知則非影響第三者效果認知的重要因素。此外，選民對選舉民調的第三者效果認知愈強，愈傾向於贊成限制選前公佈選舉民調結果。換言之，本研究的主要發現支持第三者效果的認知假設及行為假設。

This study examines the antecedents and consequence of the third-person effect of election poll reports. A causal model proposes that higher educational level , greater perceived self-expertise on campaign issues, greater involvement with an election, and greater perceived undesirability of election poll reports will have positive direct effects on the third-person effect of the poll reports. And a stronger perception of the third-person effect of election poll reports will induce an endorsement of prohibiting the reports during election campaigns. Overall, the causal model is supported by the data of this study. Most of the hypotheses are supported with the exception that perceived undesirability of poll reports does not have a significant effect on the third-person effect fo the reports.

第三者效果，民意調查

the third-person effect，election pulls

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選舉民調第三者效果的因果分析.pdf